XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO), Owens Corning (NYSE:OC): Stock Earnings Analysis & Valuation Update – Daily Stock Letter

This post was originally published on this site

Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company.  The Earnings Yield for XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) stands at 0.059633.  Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company.  Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value.  The Earnings Yield Five Year average for XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is 0.014807.  Further, the Earnings to Price yield of XPO Logistics, Inc. NYSE:XPO is 0.068143.  This is calculated by taking the earnings per share and dividing it by the last closing share price.  This is one of the most popular methods investors use to evaluate a company’s financial performance.

There are many different strategies that investors use when entering the stock market. Beating the market is no easy task, and many veteran investors would echo that sentiment. When following the day to day happenings in the stock market, it can be easy to get distracted. There is a lot of emphasis on what is happening in the moment, and it can be tempting for investors to get caught up in the chaos. Everyday market fluctuations can sometimes cause investors to second guess their stock selections. Investors who are able to filter out the noise and focus on the most pertinent information may find themselves in an elevated position in relation to the rest of the investing field.  

Quant Signals – Value Composite, C- Score, MF Rank, M-Score, ERP5

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is 17.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is 11.

XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) currently has a Montier C-score of 2.00000. This indicator was developed by James Montier in an attempt to identify firms that were altering financial numbers in order to appear better on paper. The score ranges from zero to six where a 0 would indicate no evidence of book cooking, and a 6 would indicate a high likelihood of something amiss. A C-score of -1 would indicate that there is not enough information available to calculate the score. Montier used six inputs in the calculation. These inputs included a growing difference between net income and cash flow from operations, increasing receivable days, growing day’s sales of inventory, increasing other current assets, decrease in depreciation relative to gross property plant and equipment, and high total asset growth.  

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price.  The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital.  The MF Rank of XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is 5311.  A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in.  The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) has an M-score Beneish of -2.824720. This M-score model was developed by Messod Beneish in order to detect manipulation of financial statements. The score uses a combination of eight different variables. The specifics of the variables and formula can be found in the Beneish paper “The Detection of Earnings Manipulation”.

The last signal we’ll look at is the ERP5 Rank.  The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies.  The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC.  The ERP5 of XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is 6946.  The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is thought to be.

Volatility/PI

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is 46.740200.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is 43.753300.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 44.839500.

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) presently has a 10 month price index of 0.52297. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 0.57405, the 24 month is 0.92773, and the 36 month is 2.13799. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 0.97888, the 3 month is 0.92611, and the 1 month is currently 1.01600.

ROIC

The Return on Invested Capital (aka ROIC) for XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is 0.156030.  The Return on Invested Capital is a ratio that determines whether a company is profitable or not.  It tells investors how well a company is turning their capital into profits.  The ROIC is calculated by dividing the net operating profit (or EBIT) by the employed capital.  The employed capital is calculated by subrating current liabilities from total assets.  Similarly, the Return on Invested Capital Quality ratio is a tool in evaluating the quality of a company’s ROIC over the course of five years.  The ROIC Quality of XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is 0.950580.  This is calculated by dividing the five year average ROIC by the Standard Deviation of the 5 year ROIC.  The ROIC 5 year average is calculated using the five year average EBIT, five year average (net working capital and net fixed assets).  The ROIC 5 year average of XPO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) is 0.086772.

Investors might be reviewing portfolio performance over the last six months. Many investors will be tracking shares that are trading near important levels such as the 52-week high and 52-week low. When a stock is trading near new 52-week high, investors may have to decide whether they should sell or hold on for future gains. Stocks that are moving towards a new 52-week low may also be worth keeping an eye on. There are many factors that can have an impact on the health of a particular stock. This is one reason why stock picking can be extremely tough at times. Because there are always so many things to monitor, it may be next to impossible to build a formula that will continually beat the market. Even after all the applicable information has been examined, the investor still has to make sense of the data and figure out what to do with it. Knowing how to use company data can end up being the difference between handsome gains and crippling losses.      

The Earnings to Price yield of Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) is 0.081353.  This is calculated by taking the earnings per share and dividing it by the last closing share price.  This is one of the most popular methods investors use to evaluate a company’s financial performance.  Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company.  The Earnings Yield for Owens Corning NYSE:OC is 0.079421.  Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company.  Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value.  The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) is 0.058756.

It is no secret that most investors have the best of intentions when diving into the equity markets. Making sound, informed decisions can help the investor make the most progress when dealing with the markets. Often times, investors may think they have everything in order, but they still come out on the losing end. Investors may need to figure out ways to keep emotion out of stock picking. Sometimes trading on emotions can lead to poor results. Making hasty decisions and not paying attention to the correct data can lead to poor performing portfolios in the long-term. 

Quant Scores/Key Ratios

Now we’ll turn to some key quant data and ratios. The Current Ratio of Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) is 1.83. The Current Ratio is used by investors to determine whether a company can pay short term and long term debts. The current ratio looks at all the liquid and non-liquid assets compared to the company’s total current liabilities. A high current ratio indicates that the company might have trouble managing their working capital. A low current ratio (when the current liabilities are higher than the current assets) indicates that the company may have trouble paying their short term obligations.

Owens Corning (NYSE:OC)’s Leverage Ratio was recently noted as 0.388124. This ratio is calculated by dividing total debt by total assets plus total assets previous year, divided by two. The leverage of a company is relative to the amount of debt on the balance sheet. This ratio is often viewed as one measure of the financial health of a firm.

The Gross Margin Score is calculated by looking at the Gross Margin and the overall stability of the company over the course of 8 years. The score is a number between one and one hundred (1 being best and 100 being the worst). The Gross Margin Score of Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) is 13.00000. The more stable the company, the lower the score. If a company is less stable over the course of time, they will have a higher score.

At the time of writing, Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) has a Piotroski F-Score of 7. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) has an M-score Beneish of -2.592199. This M-score model is a little known investment tool that was developed by Messod Beneish in order to detect manipulation of financial statements. The score uses a combination of eight different variables. The specifics of the variables and formula can be found in the Beneish paper “The Detection of Earnings Manipulation”.

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) is 20.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) is 16.

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price.  The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital.  The MF Rank of Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) is 4063.  A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in.  The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

Shifting gears, we can see that Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) has a Q.i. Value of 27.00000. The Q.i. Value ranks companies using four ratios. These ratios consist of EBITDA Yield, FCF Yield, Liquidity, and Earnings Yield. The purpose of the Q.i. Value is to help identify companies that are the most undervalued. Typically, the lower the value, the more undervalued the company tends to be.

Price Index/Share Movement

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) presently has a 10 month price index of 0.96068. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 0.88041, the 24 month is 0.87538, and the 36 month is 1.08541. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 1.04630, the 3 month is 1.07222, and the 1 month is currently 1.10290.

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) is 35.185900.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) is 34.525700.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 32.460800.

Investors looking to chalk up healthy returns in the stock market may need to pay attention to avoid common pitfalls. When the good times are rolling, investors may be highly tempted to move a lot of money into certain stocks that have been churning out returns. One problem with this approach is that a stock that has been hot for a few months might not be hot over the next three months. It is always important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Getting into a stock too late may leave the average investor pounding the table as a former winner turns into a current loser. 

This post was originally published on *this site*