Woolworths Ltd (WOW.AX): Watching the MFI on the Charts – Wagner Review

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Woolworths Ltd (WOW.AX) shares have sparked the interest of some chartists as the Money Flow Index has dropped below 30, potentially heading for key 20 levels. The Money Flow Index is an indicator that utilizes the volume and volatility of an asset to determine the buying or selling pressure of an asset. The indicator was developed by Avrum Soudack and Gene Quong as a volume-weighted variation of the RSI.

The Money Flow Index is calibrated from 0 to 100, and creates a money flow ratio (Positive Money Flow to Negative Money Flow) over a time period. This money flow ratio is what is pushed into an RSI formula to create a momentum indicator. Being a momentum indicator, the Money Flow Index (MFI) is capable evaluating overbought and oversold market conditions, using values of 70-80 and above for overbought conditions and 20 and below for oversold situations.

Amateur investors can sometimes become overwhelmed by the speed and volatility of the stock market. Often times, avoiding big mistakes early on can be the difference between staying in the game or being prematurely forced to the sidelines. One of the biggest mistakes that a new investor can make is not creating a realistic plan. A well-crafted plan will generally include risk tolerance, time horizon, and amount and frequency of investments. Having a clear plan for attaining goals can help the investor stay focused when the terrain gets rocky. Another common mistake for investors is buying high and selling low. Of course, everybody preaches the buy low sell high mantra, but it is much easier said than done. Getting caught up in the day to day market swings can lead the investor to do just the opposite and become a hot stock chaser instead of a disciplined decision maker.

Taking a deeper look into the technicals, Woolworths Ltd (WOW.AX) currently has a 50-day Moving Average of 31.97, the 200-day Moving Average is 29.76, and the 7-day is noted at 31.74. Following moving averages with different time frames may help offer a wide variety of stock information. A longer average like the 200-day may serve as a smoothing tool when striving to evaluate longer term trends. On the flip side, a shorter MA like the 50-day may help with identifying shorter term trading signals. Moving averages may also function well as a tool for determining support and resistance levels.

Traders may be relying in part on technical stock analysis. Woolworths Ltd (WOW.AX) currently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of 85.13. Despite the name, CCI can be used on other investment tools such as stocks. The CCI was designed to typically stay within the reading of -100 to +100. Traders may use the indicator to determine stock trends or to identify overbought/oversold conditions. A CCI reading above +100 would imply that the stock is overbought and possibly ready for a correction. On the other hand, a reading of -100 would imply that the stock is oversold and possibly set for a rally.

At the time of writing, the 14-day ADX for Woolworths Ltd (WOW.AX) is 24.51. Many technical chart analysts believe that an ADX value over 25 would suggest a strong trend. A reading under 20 would indicate no trend, and a reading from 20-25 would suggest that there is no clear trend signal. The ADX is typically plotted along with two other directional movement indicator lines, the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI). Some analysts believe that the ADX is one of the best trend strength indicators available.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of multiple popular technical indicators created by J. Welles Wilder. Wilder introduced RSI in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” which was published in 1978. RSI measures the magnitude and velocity of directional price movements. The data is represented graphically by fluctuating between a value of 0 and 100. The indicator is computed by using the average losses and gains of a stock over a certain time period. RSI can be used to help spot overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI reading over 70 would be considered overbought, and a reading under 30 would indicate oversold conditions. A level of 50 would indicate neutral market momentum. The 14-day RSI is currently sitting at 54.08, the 7-day is at 62.47, and the 3-day is spotted at 89.31.

Looking at stock market performance over the last few months, new investors may be worried that they might have missed out on some fantastic opportunities. With so much information and data available, they may not even know where to begin when getting into the stock investing arena. Everybody has to start somewhere, and becoming knowledgeable about the basics may help provide the perfect springboard from which to launch. Starting with the basics may help the investor understand the bigger picture which can then be filtered down into specifics. Because there is no magic formula to achieving success in the stock market, investors may have to explore many different strategies before choosing one to run with.

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