The Dollar/Yen is trading slightly lower early Wednesday after closing higher the previous session despite giving up nearly all of its earlier gains. Technically, the selling started after the Forex pair slammed into a wall of resistance on the daily chart. Fundamentally, a reversal to the downside in Treasury yields and a drop in demand for risky assets pressured prices.
At 05:41, the USD/JPY is trading 108.457, down 0.064 or -0.06%.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. The main trend will change to up on a trade through 109.930. A move through 107.810 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The major range is 105.180 to 112.405. The USD/JPY is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 108.793 to 107.940. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the longer-term direction of the Forex pair.
The short-term range is 107.810 to 108.805. Its retracement zone at 108.308 to 108.190 is the next downside target. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could show up on a test of this zone. They are going to try to produce a secondary higher bottom.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action, the direction of the USD/JPY on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 108.435.
A sustained move over 108.435 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is a downtrending Gann angle at 108.677. This angle helped stop the rally on Tuesday. Overtaking it will indicate the buying is getting stronger with 108.793 to 108.805 the next likely upside target. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.
A sustained move under 108.435 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the retracement zone at 108.308 to 108.190. Watch for aggressive counter-trend buyers to show up on a test of this zone. If it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the uptrending Gann angle at 108.123.
Today’s U.S. consumer inflation report, due to be released at 12:30 GMT, could set the tone of the market later in the session. Ultimately, the direction of the USD/JPY will be determined by Treasury yields and demand for risk.
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