This Is the Unluckiest Stock on Friday the 13th – Schaeffers Research (blog)

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Tomorrow is Friday the 13th — a day considered to be so ominous there’s an entire slasher-movie franchise built around it, and it even has a dedicated phobia. What’s more, recent history shows that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) actually tends to be rather unlucky on Friday the 13th, and retail stock Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE:KSS) has been the most unfortunate of all.

Gloomy Returns for S&P

Since 2010, the SPX has ended Friday the 13th higher just 40% of the time — that’s compared to an anytime daily win rate of 54.8%, according to Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. On average, the stock market index has lost 0.19% on this day, compared to an average anytime daily gain of 0.05%. Back in April, the SPX surrendered 0.29% on Friday the 13th. 

Worst Stocks on Friday the 13th

Below are the 25 worst stocks to own on Friday the 13th, looking at returns since 2010. Kohl’s tops the list, ending the day lower 80% of the time, and averaging a one-day drop of 1.02%.

KSS shares have surrendered more than 13% since their June 12 record peak just shy of $80. In fact, over the years, Kohl’s shares have tried and failed to conquer the round-number $80 region several times. At last check, the stock was 1.1% lower to trade at $69.44, testing support at its 50-day moving average.

Speculators expecting a continued pullback for KSS in the short term can pick up options at a relative bargain. The equity’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 34% is in just the 12th percentile of its annual range, suggesting near-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations right now.

Seagate Technology Could Be a Survivor

As far as stocks that could buck the trend, Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ:STX) tends to be a “final girl” (what horror movie enthusiasts often call the lone survivor). It’s the only S&P 500 stock with an 80% win rate on Friday the 13th, looking at returns since 2010. The equity’s average one-day gain of 0.80% is second to only Ulta Beauty Inc (NASDAQ:ULTA), which has averaged a gain of 1.2%.

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