We often see a clear bias toward strength or weakness during any given month in the bond market. If July clearly marked a trend toward lower rates and August was the complete opposite, are we about to see another shift toward lower rates in September?

Econ Data / Events

Market Movement Recap

08:20 AM

Bonds were fairly flat during Asian hours and then weakened modestly during European hours.  They’ve mostly recovered by the start of the domestic session with 10yr yields up 1.3bps and MBS unchanged. 

10:08 AM

After a back and forth morning, bonds quickly hit their weakest levels after the ISM PMI data.  We’ve already recovered a bit though.  10yr up 1.5bps at .72% and 2.0 UMB down only 1 tick at 103-05 (103.16).

11:10 AM

Back in positive territory in MBS now (up 2 ticks or 0.06). 10yr yields are down to best levels of the day, unchanged at .7064.  

02:42 PM

Gains extended after bond-friendly comments from Fed’s Brainerd.  10yr down 3bps at .674 and MBS up about an eight on the day, both near the best levels of the day despite the same being true for stocks.  Then again, a bond-friendly Fed is also a stock-friendly Fed.