U.S.-traded shares of China technology companies were mixed Monday after the Shanghai exchange had another big decline Monday, with one market technician warning that the index could re-test lows set in January-February.
Ralph Acampora, analyst at Altaira Capital Partners, tweeted that the Shanghai exchange “is now expected to retest its January/February 2016 low at 2,638.”
JD.com (JD) stock was down nearly 10%, though the e-commerce company early Monday posted Q1 revenue that rose 47% from the year-earlier quarter.
The Shanghai exchange fell 2.8% on Monday to 2832.11, after sliding last week.
The People’s Daily, the government’s official newspaper, on Monday warned that China’s economic recovery might stall. The economic trend may be “L-shaped,” meaning flat growth, rather than a stronger “U-shaped” recovery, said the People’s Daily. Even so, the article said the government will not use excessive investment or rapid credit expansion to stimulate growth.
One concern among China observers is the country’s widespread debt.
Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, in a research report published Monday, referred to global investor George Soros’ remarks in April that China’s situation marks an “eerie resemblance” to the U.S. in 2005 to 2008, just before the financial crisis sparked the Great Recession. But BofA sees what it calls a better comparison, looking at Japan in the 1990s.
“While there may be some parallels between the precrisis situation in the U.S. and China today, there arguably are even more important differences, including the nature of the increase in credit, extent of contagion risks to the broader economy, and scope for government policy to preclude or offset,” said the report. “Indeed, if we had to identify a historical antecedent for the current situation in China, a more applicable choice might be Japan during the 1990s.
“That said, China’s unique situation belies any simple comparison with past crises in either developed or emerging markets, and warrants its own more in-depth investigation.”
Another concern is increased scrutiny on the number of U.S.-listed China tech companies that plan to go private or delist in the U.S. in favor of China markets, where they have expected they could see higher valuations.
China has said it is “reviewing market concerns about a record wave of businesses seeking higher mainland valuations with relistings there,” Bloomberg reported Sunday.